Three-month truce said to have followed negotiations over the release of civilians abducted in Borno, but government has not publicly confirmed the agreement
The Nigerian government has reportedly reached a secret ceasefire agreement with a faction of Boko Haram led by Ibrahim Bakura Doro, in a development that has coincided with a relative lull in attacks in parts of northeastern Nigeria.
The New Humanitarian reported on September 7 that the alleged truce had been in effect since June and could be extended, citing three people with contacts among Boko Haram members, including senior figures. Two of the sources said communities around Ngoshe in Borno State had experienced a halt in attacks since the agreement took effect.
The report said the ceasefire was linked to negotiations that resulted in the release in June of 360 civilians abducted from Ngoshe village in Gwoza Local Government Area.
The mass abduction reportedly occurred in March following a Boko Haram attack on a nearby military base.
Ceasefire linked to hostage negotiations
According to The New Humanitarian, the three sources independently said the truce began in June and was expected to be extended for another 40 days.
The publication said the agreement was not publicly announced and that it contacted Nigerian government, Defence Headquarters and military spokespersons for confirmation but received no response before publication.
The reported development comes after Nigerian authorities announced the release of hundreds of Ngoshe residents in June.
The Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation reported that 357 people were released in the latest phase, while about 82 others had regained their freedom in smaller batches, bringing the total number of people freed to 434. Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum credited President Bola Tinubu and security agencies with helping secure their release.
Report of ₦5 billion ransom
The New Humanitarian also reported that the alleged agreement surrounding the release of the hostages involved a payment of about ₦5 billion, equivalent to approximately $3.7 million at the exchange rate cited in the report.
However, the Nigerian government has denied making such a payment. The alleged ransom has also become the subject of controversy over claims concerning the handling of the money.
The reported ceasefire therefore remains unconfirmed by the Nigerian government, and there is no public evidence establishing the terms of any alleged agreement.
Not all insurgent groups involved
The reported arrangement does not involve the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which is a rival jihadist organisation operating in parts of northeastern Nigeria.
The New Humanitarian said clashes between Boko Haram and ISWAP have continued, highlighting the fragmented nature of the insurgency in the region.
Bakura Doro has been identified as the overall leader of the Boko Haram faction, also known as Jama’at Ahl al Sunna li Da’wa wal Jihad (JAS). According to the report, several Boko Haram factions operating in different parts of northeastern and north-central Nigeria have pledged allegiance to him.
The sustainability of any ceasefire could therefore depend on whether the different commanders can maintain their commitment to the arrangement.
Government’s public position remains military-focused
The reported negotiations would represent a significant shift from the Nigerian government’s publicly stated position on dealing with Boko Haram.
President Bola Tinubu has continued to emphasise strengthening the military’s capacity to combat terrorism and banditry. In July, he announced plans to recruit 30,000 additional military personnel and establish four new divisions.
The New Humanitarian quoted a security official as saying that Nigeria has a history of attempts to establish dialogue with Boko Haram, including previous ceasefires that ultimately collapsed.
A conflict researcher quoted in the report cautioned that the latest arrangement could be a temporary tactical truce rather than a pathway to lasting peace.
Questions over the future of the truce
The reported ceasefire has raised questions about whether dialogue can complement military operations in resolving Nigeria’s 17-year insurgency.
Supporters of negotiations argue that military action alone has failed to end the conflict, while critics have warned that payments or temporary agreements with armed groups could create incentives for further kidnappings and demands.
The New Humanitarian also reported that some sources believed Boko Haram could use the ceasefire period to strengthen its position, including potentially moving equipment into the Mandara Mountains.
For now, the reported agreement remains an unconfirmed arrangement, rather than an officially acknowledged Nigerian government peace deal. Its reported extension and whether it can produce a sustained reduction in violence will likely determine its significance for communities that have endured years of insurgency.