The United Nations’ International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has warned that rising energy and fertiliser costs could worsen global hunger, with food prices expected to face further pressure over the coming six to nine months.
IFAD President Alvaro Lario issued the warning during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, citing an energy shock linked to conflict in the Middle East. Global agricultural prices rose by 13 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, adding to concerns about food affordability.
Lario warned that higher fuel and fertiliser costs could increase farmers’ production expenses, push up food prices and make nutritious meals increasingly unaffordable, particularly for vulnerable households in developing countries.
Fertiliser is essential for maintaining crop yields, while fuel powers farm machinery and the transportation of agricultural produce. When these costs rise, farmers may reduce production or pass additional expenses on to consumers.
Smallholder farmers face particular risks because they account for about one-third of global food production and as much as 70 per cent in many developing countries. Higher input costs could threaten their livelihoods while reducing the availability of affordable food in local markets.
The pressure is expected to be especially severe in countries where households spend a large share of their income on food and where reliance on imported food, fuel and fertiliser exposes consumers to international price increases.
IFAD has stressed the importance of supporting small-scale farmers and strengthening food systems to protect vulnerable communities. Governments may also need targeted assistance to help low-income households cope with rising food costs.
The agency’s warning highlights the close relationship between energy prices, agricultural production and food security. If energy and fertiliser costs remain elevated, millions of people could face greater difficulty accessing nutritious food in the coming months.