The World Bank has warned that developing countries could face a shortfall of approximately 800 million jobs over the next 10 to 15 years, as the number of young people entering the workforce is expected to far exceed available employment opportunities.
World Bank Group President Ajay Banga raised the concern during the 2026 International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, where he called for urgent action to expand job creation and improve economic opportunities for young people.
According to the World Bank, approximately 1.2 billion young people in developing economies are expected to reach working age over the next decade to 15 years. However, current projections suggest that only about 400 million jobs will be created during the same period, leaving a potential gap of 800 million employment opportunities.
The projection highlights the scale of the challenge facing governments, businesses and development partners, particularly in countries where rapid population growth is increasing pressure on labour markets, public services and economic infrastructure.
Banga described the employment gap as a defining economic and strategic challenge, warning that failure to create sufficient opportunities could deepen social and economic pressures across developing nations.
In remarks published by the World Bank, he stressed that employment is central to economic dignity and stability, arguing that young people need practical opportunities to earn a living and participate productively in their economies.
The World Bank said closing the gap will require governments to work more closely with private investors and development partners, while creating conditions that encourage businesses to expand and employ more people.
Its proposed approach centres on investment in essential infrastructure, education, healthcare and skills development, alongside improvements to business regulations and efforts to mobilise private capital.
Infrastructure and energy are among the areas where investment could support employment by improving electricity supply, transportation and access to markets. Better infrastructure can reduce operating costs for businesses and make it easier for enterprises to grow, expand production and recruit workers.
The bank has also identified agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and healthcare as sectors with significant potential to generate employment when supported by appropriate investment and policy reforms.
Small and medium-sized businesses are particularly important to this strategy because they can create jobs across local economies. However, businesses in many developing countries face barriers including limited access to finance, unreliable electricity, inadequate transport networks and regulatory uncertainty.
Addressing these obstacles, the World Bank argues, will be necessary to translate economic growth into employment opportunities that are accessible to young people.
The challenge is especially significant for Africa, where a rapidly expanding youth population is expected to shape the continent’s economic future. The World Bank has previously highlighted that millions of young Africans enter the labour market each year, while the number of formal wage-paying jobs created remains substantially lower.
This imbalance raises concerns about underemployment, informal work and the difficulty many young people face in securing stable incomes. Without sufficient opportunities, countries could struggle to benefit fully from their demographic growth.
The consequences could extend beyond unemployment figures. Limited access to decent work can worsen poverty, increase economic insecurity and contribute to social instability. The World Bank has also warned that employment pressures can influence migration and fragility, particularly where young people see few prospects for building a secure future at home.
At the same time, the bank has stressed that the projected shortfall is not inevitable. The 800 million figure represents the difference between the number of young people expected to reach working age and the number of jobs projected to become available, rather than a forecast that exactly 800 million people will necessarily remain unemployed.
The scale of the gap therefore depends partly on the policies governments adopt, the level of investment businesses make and the ability of economies to create productive work.
The warning comes amid broader concerns about the ability of developing economies to finance growth. High debt-servicing costs and declining development assistance have limited fiscal space in some countries, making it harder for governments to invest in infrastructure, education and other areas that support job creation.
The World Bank has called for a development approach that combines public financing with private investment and other sources of capital. Under this approach, public funds would help address infrastructure and policy barriers, while private businesses would play a central role in expanding production and employment.
For developing nations, the central challenge will be ensuring that economic expansion produces enough productive jobs to accommodate the next generation of workers.
With 1.2 billion young people expected to reach working age over the coming 10 to 15 years, the World Bank’s warning places job creation at the centre of the development agenda. Governments, investors and international institutions face mounting pressure to turn that demographic shift into an opportunity for growth rather than a prolonged employment crisis.